Retail regular gasoline prices fell by 1.4c in the last four weeks to $3.798/Gal. About 50% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1 MMBbl for the week ending September 23 and are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year
US fall refinery maintenance season shapes up to heaviest since pre-COVID (Bloomberg)
Refining capacity is set to decrease by about 2.5 MMBbl/d for maintenance from September to December, marking an 11% increase from last year
The 3-2-1 futures crack spread fell from its YTD high of $43/Bbl in August to $23/Bbl. While diesel margins have held strong, gasoline margins are seeing a post-summer decline
Estimated offline processing capacity for September was 0.53 MMBbl/d and is projected to be 1.48 MMBbl/d in October, and 0.45 MMBbl/d in November, with no planned outages in December, according to Energy Aspects
However, these figures only account for scheduled maintenance; real numbers may rise due to unforeseen shutdowns or additional work
Retail diesel prices rose by 13.5c in the last four weeks to $4.593/Gal. About 44% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
Distillate fuel inventories rose by 0.4 MMBbl for the week ending September 23 and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year
Russia mulls exempting fuel producers from export ban (Bloomberg)
Russia is considering allowing only fuel-producing companies to export diesel while maintaining the ban for gray-market exporters
The initial export ban, which also included gasoline, was aimed at controlling domestic fuel prices ahead of the upcoming presidential elections
While discussions continue, a decision on modifying the ban might be reached this week, according to people familiar with the matter
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