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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack
Regional basis curves have been shifting the past month whereby prompt basis and the balance of summer 2026 remain depressed while Nov26+ tenors continue to strengthen off recent lows. Storage levels across the Midcon (Midwest and South-Central non-salt) are maintaining a path along the five-year average. A slight increase in local production as well as increased net inflows into the Midcon are currently being offset by higher local consumption and increased net outflows. Forward prices should remain supported as long as this holds.
NGPL Midcon Basis is used as a regional benchmark for Lower Midcon gas prices, with the basis spread being the discount or premium to Henry Hub. Forward prices for NGPL Midcon remain at a discount to Hub throughout the next two years, as Lower Midcon prices in general trade at discounts to downstream demand locations in the Midwest or Gulf Coast. The reason for this is that the Midcon is situated in between sources of supply and demand, while also having a substantial amount of production. At times of strong weather-driven demand during peak winter, prices may rise above Henry Hub, encouraging more gas to remain in the region.
Commentary
May 29: Pricing across the Midcon has diverged recently. Daily and near term first of month prices (balance of summer) have been falling the past week. Gas daily NGPL Midcon pricing is down $0.093 week-over-week to $2.40, continuing its trend of pricing below last year’s levels. Meanwhile the next three full seasons, through Mar28, have been rising. Summer 2027 pricing is making the most notable progress, rallying back to some of the best trading prices since early 2024.
May 22: Basis pricing across the Midcon has been a mixed bag the past week. Gas daily pricing at NGPL Midcon is up $0.246 week-over-week to nearly $2.50, close to price levels seen last year. However, forward first of month prices have retreated slightly across the basin for the balance of summer and summer ’27 while staying mostly flat for the next two winters.
May 8: Gas daily prices in the Midcon are continuing to price in the low to mid $2.00s. However, first of month pricing continues to rise. Prompt Jun26 NGPL Midcon basis is up to -$0.5425 intraday Friday, the highest price since early November 2025. Pricing across the curve is grinding higher, summer '27 is up to -$0.50 for NGPL Midcon after hitting multi-month lows in April.
May 1: The Midcon has seen strengthening across the basis forward curve the past week. Production has been slowly declining since the beginning of the year, moving below 8.0 Bcf/d recently. Front month June NGPL Midcon basis rose roughly 4c the past week, up to -$0.5675 intraday Friday.
April 24: Regional basis pricing in the Midcon rose this past week with buying across multiple regional points late in the week. NGPL Midcon basis pricing for the May contract rose to -$0.575 intraday Friday after settling the week prior at -$0.640. It was a similar story for OneOK and Panhandle basis as both points rose week-over-week as well.
April 17: Trading across Midcon basis locations remains light. Overall price movement has been mostly flat with some small price appreciation throughout the forward curves. Prompt month NGPL Midcon basis remains flat week-over-week at -$0.65. There was more activity in prompt Panhandle basis which gained 5c to trade -$0.68 to end the week.
April 10: Light trading activity across regional locations has meant many tenors are trading relatively unchanged week-over-week. However, the prompt month May26 contract is trending higher with NGPL Midcon basis pricing -$0.6575, up from -$0.725 at the close of Thursday, April 2. Panhandle basis has also seen buying this week, rising to -$0.730 intraday, up $0.06, week-over-week.
NGPL Midcon Basis Outlook and Notes
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Summer '26
Regional basis pricingbasis pricing has rebounded off recent lows at the end of winter and are back near pre-winter price levels.
In basin demand should start to pick up as summer turns warmer. Demand is off the shoulder season low and should only increase through August. It’s likely we’ve seen the lowest prices of the year as prices typically rally through August.
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Winter '26-'27
The Permian Basin will gain new pipeline egress capacity to the Gulf Coast in the second half of 2026, potentially competing against Midcon flows south.
Pricing across the next two Winters has recently rebounded and is trending back near levels traded during Summer ’25.
Continuing to de-risk on favorable net prices due to Henry Hub strength may be prudent.
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Summer '27
Take advantage of resilient pricing in Summer '27 which is trading near averaged settlement levels seen in recent summers.
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For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:
For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market. Consult our Gas Macro Outlook for more.
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Recent Market-Relevant Events
8.5.2025
Pipeline maintenance supporting midwest gas prices
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7.14.2025
Midcon producers see $3.79 gas needed for substantial growth
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5.2.2025
TC Energy approves ANR pipeline expansion
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Several pipelines pass through the Midcontinent, bringing supply from west Texas and the Rockies into the Midwest. Meanwhile, gas also flows south through the region toward the Gulf Coast. During winter when the Midwest and Northeast consume the most gas, flows typically head north towards the large demand centers.
There are only a few planned infrastructure expansions on the horizon. As part of the power buildout throughout the country, One Gas Inc., is planning to build a new 43-mile pipeline from Bennington, OK to its Hugo Power Plant near Fort Towson, OK. Most of the larger pipeline buildouts are focused in the Upper Midcontinent/Midwest.
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For a discussion of production outlook:
Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.
Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.
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Major Pipeline Exits From the Lower Midcontinent
Gas Pipeline Flows
Gas Pipeline Projects
One Gas, Inc. Bennington to Hugo Line
In-service date: 3Q 2028
Capacity: 250 MMcf/d
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ANR Northwoods Expansion
In-service date: 2029
Capacity: 400 MMcf/d
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Local Supply
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Gas production in the lower Midcon has been relatively stable over the past few years, in a range between 7.5 and 8.5 Bcf/d. Current production rates have consolidated around 8.25 Bcf/d from January 1, 2026, through May 28, 2026. This is ahead of where the region has been producing for the past two years. Along with year-over-year higher production, inflows of natural gas into the lower Midcon are also higher this summer. Since the beginning of April, inflows into the lower Midcon are up over 600 MMcf/d, although they’re being matched with higher regional net outflows. The result is storage levels across the Midwest and South-Central non-salt is continuing to move along the five-year average.
Analysts are anticipating a rather tame production growth profile moving forward with production exiting the decade averaging 8.6 Bcf/d. This production growth rate is in line with anticipated demand growth from increased electrical demand.
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Operator Guidance
Devon Energy (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/06/2026
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2026 Guidance:
Q1 2026 Production:
Gas: Mid-Con assets continue competing for capital post-Cotera merger
Total: Top end of guidance, no specific boe
FY 2026 Production:
Gas: 1,360-1,400 MMcf/d
Total: 835-855 Mboe/d
2026 CapEx:
Q1 Total: $870-$930MM (Upstream $850-$900MM)
FY Total: $3.5-$3.7B (Upstream $3.425-$3.575B)
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights:
Coterra Merger:
1.6 MMboe/d expected production
Acquisitions & Partnerships:
Matterhorn equity divestiture (~$409MM; capacity retained)
LNG export deal: 50 MMcf/d (10 years, starts 2028)
In-basin power deal: 65 MMcf/d (7 years, starts 2028)
Total production in 2026 expected to remain near current elvels at 835 Mboe/d to 855 Mboe/d
Crude oil is expected to make up roughly 388 Mboe/d of total production
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Mid-Con allocation remains stable, not a swing basin:
No indication of major near-term allocation shifts outside Delaware
Refracs less competitive:
Improved D&C efficiencies making new wells more attractive than refracs
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Gulfport Energy (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/05/2026
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2026 Guidance
FY 2026 Production:
Gas: ~1.03-1.055 Bcfe/d
Q1: 997 MMcfe/d
Capital & Activity:
Q1 D&C capital: $118MM
Acreage acquisition spend over last 4 quarters: ~$102MM
Transitioning to: 1-rig Ohio program in 2H26
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Marketing Strategy:
No takeaway constraints limiting future production growth
Strong FT portfolio provides exposure to:
Gulf Coast LNG pricing
Midwest seasonal pricing
Northeast demand growth
Potential for modest future transportation cost optimization, but no major FT portfolio changes expected
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Ovintiv (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/12/2026
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2026 Guidance
Q2 2026 Production Guidance:
Total: 623 Mboe/d
Oil: 203 MBbls/d
2026 CapEx:
Q1 Capital: ~$575MM
FY Capital: $2.25-2.35B (unchanged)
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Ovintiv completed the sale of its Anadarko Basin assets in Q1 2026
Divestiture significantly reduced leverage and strengthened the balance sheet:
Net debt reduced to < $3.3B
Leverage reduced to <0.8x
Management stated the transaction completes Ovintiv’s strategic portfolio transition toward a concentrated Permian and Montney-focused development model
Company emphasized a new “period of stability” following years of portfolio repositioning
Drilling & Basin Activity
Mid-Con / Anadarko Basin
No meaningful future Mid-Con drilling or development activity discussed following the divestiture
Anadarko assets were only partially included in Q1 operations before the sale closed
Management indicated Ovintiv no longer has material strategic exposure to the Mid-Con region
Capital allocation and operational focus have fully shifted toward the Permian and Montney basins
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Local Demand
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Demand is moving off its shoulder season lows, so far outpacing summer ’25 through the first two months. Currently local consumption is averaging nearly 3 Bcf/d during April & May, up 120 MMcf/d from a year ago. Demand should continue to trend higher as we move into summer, with the peak generally during the month of August. In addition to slightly higher demand, gas leaving the region has also been higher this summer. Through the first two months of summer, net outflows from the Lower Midcon have averaged 5.2 Bcf/d, up 750 MMcf/d year over year. This is helping offset the higher inflows discussed earlier.
Moving forward, the Midcontinent will continue to rely on the Midwest and Gulf Coast as major sources of demand. Local demand is expected to grow slowly through the end of the decade as coal is phased out and additional demand comes online via datacenters. Through the end of the decade its anticipated demand will increase by an average of roughly 500 MMcf/d, offset by corresponding supply growth.
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Renewables: The Southwest Power Pool or SPP, which includes most of the Midcontinent, is one of the largest regions for wind generation.
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Data Centers and Electrification: The rise of data centers and electrification of oilfield operations (e.g., electric drilling rigs) also adds to power demand. As with many parts of the US with access to reliable gas and power supply, developers have started to build data centers in Oklahoma. Google operates one data center east of Tulsa, while a new 500-acre facility linked to Meta is also planned for the city.
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Recent Market-Relevant events
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Pipeline maintenance supporting midwest gas prices
(August 5, 2025)
Work on the Viking Gas Transmission system reduced flows heading into the midwest
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A series of hydrotests reduced downstream flows from Minnesota into the midwest
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Midwest spot gas prices strengthened amid the supply reduction, while prices near the Canadian border weakened
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Gas inventories in the region had already been trailing other parts of the country, with lower supply exacerbating this
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Midcon producers see $3.79 gas needed for growth
(July 14, 2025)
A survey by the Kansas City Federal Reserve found producers in the area think gas prices need to average $3.79/MMbtu for drilling to be profitable.
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Executives noted that for drilling in the region to be profitable, natural gas prices will need to average $3.79/MMbtu, while a substantial increase in production may require an average of $5.01/MMbtu
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One respondent stated that gas prices have been stronger this year, encouraging more activity in the mid-term, but this could weaken prices on a longer time frame
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TC Energy approves ANR pipeline expansion
(May 30, 2025)
TC Energy approved a $900 million expansion of its ANR pipeline system through the Northwoods project, aiming to meet increasing natural gas demand in the U.S. Midwest with completion expected by late 2029.
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The Northwoods project will expand ANR pipeline capacity by 0.4 Bcf/d with new infrastructure
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Northwoods aims to serve Midwest electricity demand, including data centers and economic growth
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Don’t stop here.
See how other regions are performing right now:
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