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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack
Basis pricing across the Rockies has been rising in recent weeks due to a combination of lower production and higher demand. Slightly softer production in recent weeks, combined with higher demand mean storage levels have grown much slower this summer than each of the past two years. The slower injection pace has meant storage levels are no longer setting a five-year high. Should this pattern continue, basis pricing throughout summer should strengthen further.
June 12: Gas daily prices are continuing to trend higher as we head into summer with both Cheyenne ($1.65) and Opal ($1.68) near their seasonal highs as of 6/12. However, both indices are roughly a dollar lower than at this time last year. Looking forward, seasonal first-of-month basis prices have also been rising. Summer ’27 CIG Rockies basis has risen 25% from April lows to -$0.735 intraday Friday, moving back in line to where the strip priced throughout 2024 and 2025. NWP Rockies basis has also been moving higher across the forward curve with Summer ’27 up to -$0.57 as of close Thursday. The next two winter strips have both recently turned positive as well.
May 29: Rockies basis pricing continues to improve. Gas daily pricing at Opal is up $0.253 week-over-week and $0.677 month-over-month, trading $1.627 as of the close 5/28/26. Meanwhile, daily pricing at Cheyenne is up only $0.015 week-over-week but up $0.463 month-over-month, trading $1.389 as of the close of 5/28/26. Forward-looking prices are also improving, Winter '26/'27 has turned positive at $0.005 intraday Friday for the first time since February. Likewise, CIG basis pricing has been rallying in each of the next three seasons over the past month and a half.
May 22: Basis pricing across the region is higher week-over-week. Gas daily pricing at Opal is up $0.17 while pricing at Cheyenne is up $0.14. First of month pricing for June has also risen, with CIG basis up $0.0125 to -$1.530 while NWP Rockies is up $0.0225 to -$1.4775. Selling pressure early in the week at CIG and NWP Rockies had the June contract at both locations down over $0.10 before regaining losses between Wednesday and Friday. There was little activity down the curve with both locations mostly flat from Nov26 forward.
May 8: Gas daily prices continue in the low $1.00s across the basin, although are up 15% week-over-week and over 20% month-over-month. First of month pricing is also improving with CIG and NWP Rockies basis improving across the curve. Increased trading volume has led to prompt month Jun26 CIG basis rising to -$1.50 while Jun26 NWP Rockies basis rose to -$1.4125 intraday Friday.
May 1: Daily gas prices continue to be well below last year's levels with current gas daily prices near $1.00 compared to $1.75+ at the same time last year. The week-over-week front month basis for June has increased about 10c to roughly near -$1.60 as demand has increased well above seasonal norms in the past week.
April 24: Rockies basis pricing rallied at the end of this week as Henry Hub prices fell. The prompt month May CIG Rockies basis price increased $0.07 to -$1.71 intraday April 24 after closing last week at -$1.78. NWP Rockies basis also increased week-over-week on consistent buying as well as a drop in Henry Hub. As of Friday April 24, the May contract was up to -$1.70 from -$1.77 a week prior.
April 17: We continue to see basis prices move sideways in the Rockies. Trading activity through Summer 27 was sporadic across both CIG Rockies basis and NWP Rockies basis outside of consistent selling pressure in Summer 27 NWP Rockies. Overall, the prompt month contract at both points was down about 3c on the week, settling near -$1.75 on April 17. Due to the selling pressure, Summer 27 NWP Rockies basis fell 2.5c to -$0.855.
April 10: Basis prices across the Rockies are little changed week-over-week. Prompt month, May26, basis price for CIG is trading -$1.750 intraday on Friday, April 10 while NWP Rockies basis is trading -$1.7375. Both basis locations are down 5c from last week's settle. Trade activity for each has been skewed to selling with Tuesday 4/7 being the most active day for sellers, pushing prices to weekly lows that day. Trading was less active throughout the forward curve with Winter '26/'27 pricing unchanged on the week.
Price action will continue to be heavily weather driven and influenced by adjacent regions as the Rockies looks to push gas out during the summer and meet regional demand during winter. No significant changes to pipeline egress capacity are expected over the next few years. However, there will be small increases in pipeline capacity from a few pipeline expansions throughout 2026 and 2027 intrabasin.
CIG Rockies & NWP Rockies Basis Outlook and Notes
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Summer '26
Shoulder seasons (spring/fall) look particularly susceptible to low prices as demand evaporates, and production expectations remain robust
De-risk on strength
Additional supply coming from the Bakken into Cheyenne/CIG could pose additional pressure in 2026 as the Bakken Xpress project has been authorized to begin operations
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Winter '26-'27
Basis pricing during Winter will remain susceptible to price appreciation should sustained cold materialize for the West Coast, Rockies, or Midwest regions although supply remains robust
When available take advantage of basis prices that are a premium to Henry Hub to de-risk the portfolio
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Summer '27
Take advantage of forward curves pricing in additional demand across 2027 (likely to be associated with Crusoe's Wyoming data center campus)
Summer '27 prices are likely to have more downside risk than upside appreciation if production and storage remain at or above the five-year highs over the next twelve months
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For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:
For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market. Consult our Gas Macro Outlook for more.
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Recent Market-Relevant Events
05.15.2026
Tallgrass is expected to begin installation of the first Cheyenne Power Hub gas turbines this summer
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01.08.2026
FERC approved TC Energy's Bison Xpress to enter full service
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01.08.2026
Laramie County has approved the Crusoe AI datacenter in southeast Wyoming powered by Tallgrass
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A lack of production growth since 2020 has meant pipeline egress capacity has not been challenged by production. Current projects are focused on intra-basin connectivity as well as pipeline inflows rather than additional outbound capacity. Looking forward, expectations are the basin will continue to have available egress out of each major corridor.
As of April 17, 2026, FERC authorized TC Energy to commence service on its Bison Xpress project (detailed below). On the surface this will bring up to 300 MMcf/d of supply into an already oversupplied region. However, as of May 1, 2025, no noticeable flow has been reported along this route.
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For a discussion of production outlook:
Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.
Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.
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Major Pipeline Corridors Out of The Rockies
Gas Pipeline Flows
Gas Pipeline Projects
Rockies Express Pipeline Switchgrass Interconnect
In-service date: No specific in-service date provided
Capacity: 0.42 Bcf/d
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Rockies Express Pipeline Swithgrass Interconnect - Rockies Express Pipeline, LLC filed a notice of request to "construct, own, operate, and maintain" a new 36-inch-diameter pipeline (Switchgrass Interconnect) between Weld County, Colorado and Laramie County, Wyoming. Specifics are scarce but it reasons the pipeline would be built in conjunction with Crusoe's Project Jade data center complex. Completion of the first set of buildings is targeted for 2027.
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Bison Xpress
In-service date: May 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: TC Energy
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Bison Xpress - TC Energy is working to increase capacity on the Northern Border Pipeline (NBPL) system by replacing three existing compression stations. The increased capacity of 300 MMcf/d will be leased by Wyoming Interstate Company as part of its Bakken Xpress Project. In addition, the project would allow bidirectional natural gas flow on TC's Bison pipeline.
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Bakken Xpress
In-service date: May 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: NGI, Kinder Morgan
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Bakken Xpress - Kinder Morgan's connection to the Bison Xpress project, which will provide egress south from Bison pipeline to Cheyenne via the Fort Union Gas Gathering system and Wyoming Interstate Pipeline.
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline
In-service date: late 2028
Capacity: 2.4 Bcf/d
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Source: S&P, Tallgrass
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline - Tallgrass Energy plans to build a 2.4 Bcf/d greenfield pipeline linking the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), targeting a late 2028 in-service date. The project has secured anchor shipper agreements, enabling it to move forward pending regulatory and corporate approval. The pipeline will enhance access to Midwest and Plains markets via REX and Tallgrass Interstate Gas Transmission (TIGT), with optional flows westward through Ruby and Overthrust.
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Critical Energy Reliability Link Project
In-service date: 2Q28
Capacity: 0.15 Bcf/d
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| Critical Energy Reliability Link Project - Rockies Express, Cheyenne Connector and East Cheyenne Gas Storage jointly filed an application to FERC requesting authorization for Rex to build a new 153 mile 24" pipeline to Colorado Springs. The application submitted on August 15, 2025 is the latest in a series of announcements by Tallgrass to enhance its ability to meet local demand in the Rockies. |
Local Supply
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After spending much of this past winter producing over 8.2 Bcf/d, production has been steadily declining for the first five months of the year. Since the middle of April, production has been choppy, falling below last year’s levels. Currently month to date, production is down 120 MMcf/d compared to 2025 and season to date the region is down nearly 100 MMcf/d compared to last year. After a brief pop in rigs during January and February, the region is back down to 42 rigs, roughly the same amount seen during 2024 and 2025.
Some analysts are forecasting production to decline over the next five years by as much as 10% between 2025 and 2030. Inventory exhaustion and capital deployment to other more prolific regions will be the main drivers should this produciton decline materialize.
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Operator Guidance
SM Energy (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/07/2026
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2026 Guidance
Production Outlook
Full-year 2026 guidance increased:
420 Mboe/d midpoint
Second-half 2026 production expected to average:
430 Mboe/d
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Civitas Merger Integration:
Closed January 30, progressing ahead of plan
Present Value of synergies Increased to $1.8B from $1.5B
SM Energy is integrating Civitas Resources assets, creating a significantly larger multi-basin portfolio
Drilling & Basin Activity
DJ Basin:
Q1 DJ wells demonstrated:
Early-time outperformance versus offset wells
Simul-frac implementation in watkins area delivered 25% improvement in completion efficiency compared to zipper frac operations
Management described DJ as a "low-cost, high margin business" due to faster drilling, frac operations, and cash recylcling
Civitas DJ Basin Integration Benefits:
Legacy Civitas technical expertise improves U-turn well execution and development optimization
Uinta Basin:
Highest cash production margin in portfolio
Approximately $40/bbl cash margin in Q1, so more economical for crude
Key long-term growth area, however no immediate plans to materially accelerate activity
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Free Cash Flow Focus:
Management is prioritizing oil torque and liquids margins, while reducing exposure to lower-margin gas-heavy assets
Management repeatedly emphasized the need for DJ Basin integration and development optimization as well as the Uinta Basin's upside potential
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Williams (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/05/2026
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2026 Guidance
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
LNG Infrastructure:
Silver Spur
90-mile pipeline + compression on Northwest Pipeline
Adds 275 MMcf/d into IdahoInservice targeted for early 2030
Rockies Columbia Connector:
Silver Spur is Phase 1 of the broader expansion
Additional opportunities remain in Idaho, Oregon, and WashingtonRegional Demand
Growth driven by population increases, power demand, and data centers in the Pacific Northwest
Mountain West Storage:
Evaluating new storage expansion to supoort reliability and demand growth
Utah/Power Infrastructure:
Williams building infrastructure tied to the Aquila power project
Sees long-term growth opportunities in the Mountain West
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EOG Resources (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/06/2026
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2026 Guidance
Oil and NGL production guidance increased, as the company looks to increase exposure the crude and NGL markets
Company maintained Capex guidance of $6.5 billion
Capital reallocated from gas-focused activity at Dorado toward oil-weighted assets in the Delaware Basin and Utica
Drilling & Basin Activity
Dorado capital reallocated toward:
5 net completions in the Delaware Basin
10 net completions in the Utica
EOG Targeting:
2-3 mile laterals in the Delaware
3-4 mile laterals in the Utica
However, No indication of incremental Rockies gas-directed spending in 2026
Longer-term gas outlook remains constructive driven by:
LNG demand growth, Rising U.S. electricity demand
Expected 3%-5% US gas demand CAGR through decade-end
Powder River drilled feet/day increased 13%
Rockies activity remains oil-focused with associated gas production
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Management emphasized flexibility to redirect capital back toward gas assets if market conditions improve
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Occidental Petroleum (Q1 2026 EC)
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05/06/2026
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2026 Guidance:
Rockies production outperformed in Q1 due to strong base production and new well performance
Q2 rockies volumes expected to remain roughly flat sequentially
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Rockies Highlights:
Strong US Resource Position:
Occidental emphasized its large, long-life U.S. unconventional resource base as a core competitive advantage.
Advanced Recovery Focus:
Continued focus on uncoventional secondary recovery and CO2 EOR to improve recovery rates and lower decline
Infrastructure-Adjacent Development:
Strategy centered on leveraging existing infrastructure to lower development costs and improve capital efficiency
Drilling & Basin Activity:
Cost Effeciency:
Company remains on track for ~7% new well cost improvement in 2026 through drilling and completion efficiencies.
Operational Performance:
Occidental reported top-tier unconventional well performance across all operated basins, including the Rockies
New wells delivered at least 10% better performance than industry averages on a 6-month oil-per-lateral-foot basis
Analysts Q&A Takeaways:
Analysts asked about scaling unconventional CO2 EOR projects:
Management confirmed:
Three commercial projects progressing
Compression and infrastructure buildout underway
Early Midland Basin pilot results remain encouraging
No indication of aggressive of agressive Rockies growth acceleration
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Local Demand
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Following a very mild winter across the region, summer regional demand has started strong. Through the first two months of summer, local consumption has averaged nearly 400 MMcf/d above last year. This combined with higher regional outflows mean average demand so far this summer is over 500 MMcf/d higher than last year.
Looking through the end of the decade, demand should grow modestly as datacenters begin operations across the region. However, the ramp schedule is not linear with the bulk of incremental demand projected online in 2029 and later.
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Recent Market-Relevant events
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Tallgrass and Mitsubishi Power Americas Announce Turbine Allocation for Cheyenne Power Hub
(May 15, 2026)
Market Impact: Additional regional demand should benefit regional basis pricing
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Tallgrass and Mitsubishi Power America announced on May 15, 2026 the first two gas turbines are set to be delivered to Tallgrass’ Cheyenne Power Hub
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The two turbines are expected to deliver approximately 1,150 megawatts (MW) of power by consuming an estimated 0.2 Bcf/d of natural gas
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Delivery and installation are slated to begin as early as July
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Bison Xpress Given FERC Approval to Commence Operations
(April 20, 2025)
Market Impact: Additional gas delivered into/near Cheyenne is likely to lead to additional pressure on regional prices as the market is already well supplied
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TC Energy's Bison Xpress project entered full service, adding ~300 MMcf/d of Bakken takeaway capacity down toward Cheyenne, Wyoming
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As of May 1, 2026, there is no indication natural gas is flowing along this corridor
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The project reverses the Bison pipeline and reconfigures Northern Border flows, shifting Bakken gas away from the Midwest and into the Rockies
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Wyoming Approves Data Center Campus That Includes 2.7 GW of New Natural Gas Fired Generation
(January 8, 2025)
Market Impact: Additional regional demand should benefit regional basis pricing
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Laramie County, Wyoming approved Project Jade, an AI data center campus by Crusoe, and the BFC Power and Cheyenne Power Hub
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The datacenter complex will consist of a 1.8 gigawatt data center designed to scale up to 10 gigawatts as well as corresponding power generation capacity
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Initial power needs will be supported by 2.7 gigawatt of natural gas fired generation or roughly 0.45 Bcf/d of natural gas
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The project is anticipated to bring its first phase online in mid-2027
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Tallgrass Secures Anchor Shippers for New Permian-to-REX Pipeline Targeting Late 2028 Start
(June 14, 2025)
Market Impact: This should weigh on CIG pricing later in the decade as Permian gas further supplies the Rockies and adjacent demand markets
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Tallgrass has signed anchor shipper precedent agreements to support the construction of a pipeline from the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), unlocking up to 2.4 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity
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These commitments provide financial justification for project buildout, targeting in-service by late 2028, contingent on final regulatory and corporate approvals
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The pipeline will provide access to REX's east-west backbone, linking Permian gas to Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast markets
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The project could help alleviate future Permian gas bottlenecks, improve basis differentials, and support AI-driven power demand and reshoring -related industrial growth across multiple U.S. regions
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Don’t stop here.
See how other regions are performing right now:
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