Crude retreats as risk to supply disruptions soften
The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.01 to $59.61/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
Loadings at the Kazakh CPC terminal are ramping up following weeks of export constraints (Bloomberg)
15 tankers have completed loadings of CPC blend this month, roughly 690 MBbl/d
70% of the volume was loaded over the past week as the backlog at the terminal eases
The CPC is also nearing restoration on one of its three moorings, potentially lifting shipments and easing tight near-term supplies in Europe
The American Petroleum Institute reported US crude stockpiles rose by 3 MMBbls last week, with official government data due later Thursday
Near-term US crude production to remain near 2025 record (EIA)
In their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast US crude production in 2026 will remain near the record 13.6 MMBbl/d 2025 level
2027 US production is expected to fall by 2% to 13.3 MMBBl/d, marking the first annual decline in US production since 2021
Natural gas extends gains, with February trading above $5/MMbtu
February Henry Hub is trading higher by 45c to $5.33/MMbtu, while the Summer ’26 seasonal strip is up 12c and next winter is also up 12c (8:15 AM)
The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with the Bloomberg survey showing a median expectation of a -98 Bcf withdrawal
Weather forecasts shift colder again (CWG)
Overnight forecast changes added more demand to the near-term outlook for gas, with the European Ensemble model adding 1.3 HDDs over the two-week period, although losing a slight amount of demand this weekend
The January 22 – February 5 period is currently forecast to be the coldest since 1985
Production freeze-offs remain a large risk this weekend, with temperatures in the Permian Basin, Haynesville, and Northeast forecasted to drop low enough to endanger output for a few days
Weather models are trending toward another cold front around the middle to end of next week, adding further demand to the two-week outlook
Winter storm to test ERCOT grid
The Texas grid operator has issued a weather watch for Saturday through Tuesday, with very high electrical demand expected
Electrical load is expected to rise to a seasonal high of 72 GW
Currently, renewables are forecast to be relatively weak this weekend, which should result in higher utilization of gas and coal plants
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