The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.53 to $59.97/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
President Trump criticized European allies on social media, while EU leaders signaled a firm response to potential US tariffs tied to the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark
Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries beginning February 1, increasing to 25% in June unless a deal is reached for the “purchase of Greenland”
EU leaders are expected to hold an emergency meeting to consider retaliatory measures, including reinstating duties on US goods
The escalation has pressured equities as the risk of a US–EU trade dispute raises concerns over global growth, though the impact on crude prices has been limited
The broader oversupply backdrop remains intact, with the EIA forecasting implied stock builds averaging roughly 2.8 MMBbl/d in 2026
Supply disruptions have provided some near-term support, as Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer halted production at two major fields following fires at power generation facilities
Kazakhstan had already reduced output after drone strikes disrupted the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s export terminal in Russia, which handles roughly 80% of Kazakh crude exports
CPC loadings, which reached as high as 1.7 MMBbl/d at times last year, are expected to average 800–900 MBbl/d in January
February gas surges more than 80c on significant weather shift
The February Henry Hub contract is trading higher by 83c, with the contract near $$3.95/MMbtu (8:00 AM)
Prices for the next few seasons are also higher, with the Summer ’26 seasonal strip up 14c to $3.44/MMbtu and Winter ‘26/’27 up 6c to $4.08/MMbtu
Dry gas production has faded to 107.73 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
Weather forecasts turn colder
The Euro Ensemble weather model gained more than 50 heating degree days compared to Friday, with Lower-48 temperatures now forecast to be well below the ten-year average for the next two weeks
This week, population-weighted average temperatures are expected to fall to 25 ºF, compared to the ten-year average of about 42 ºF
This should result in a significant jump in gas demand and much larger withdrawals from storage
Heavy snow and winter weather conditions are currently impacting much of the eastern US
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