The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.41 to $59.36/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
Ukrainian negotiators are preparing for a new round of talks in Florida after President Putin rejected parts of a US-backed peace framework, signaling a deal is still likely distant
Kpler reports that Russian oil marketers are increasingly relying on offshore SPVs, shadow-fleet operators, and producer-adjacent entities to keep barrels moving under tighter sanctions
These alternative sellers now capture roughly 30 percent more of Russia’s oil exports year over year, replacing some of the market share once held by Rosneft and Lukoil
Trump reiterated that the US will begin striking drug cartel targets on land in Venezuela “very soon”
Crude tanker freight rates spike (Bloomberg)
Daily earnings to transport crude on key tanker routes have surged 467 percent, the biggest jump of the year
The rally reflects higher Middle Eastern production and stronger Asian demand for those barrels following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil
Natural gas is trading lower, after reaching $5/MMbtu
The January contract briefly traded above $5/MMbtu yesterday and this morning, with this being the highest price for the rolling prompt month since 2022
Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures are still forecast to be below the ten-year average for the entirety of the next two weeks, with this December potentially being one of the top five coldest of the past 25 years
The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with a median expectation of a -18 Bcf withdrawal
This would be smaller than the five-year average injection, but the following two reports should be larger than average
EU permanently bans Russian natural gas (NGI)
The European Union has reached a deal to permanently ban the import of all Russian natural gas and accelerate the timeline to phase out current imports
The deal reached on Wednesday would ban any new contracts for both LNG and pipeline imports within six weeks of the rule taking effect, with Russian LNG imports banned by January 2027 and piped gas banned by September 30, 2027
The ban appears to be a long-term measure, separate from sanctions which are likely temporary
While this move will have no immediate impact on US LNG, this could support the spread between Henry Hub and international gas prices over the next few years as Europe may rely more heavily on US imports
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