- Oil set for fourth monthly loss as oversupply concerns dominate
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.07 to $59/Bbl Friday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- WTI trades near $59/Bbl and is on track for a fourth straight monthly decline, the longest losing stretch since mid-2023
- The market remains pressured by rising supply from OPEC+, the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana, and forecast agencies continue to highlight a loose global balance through 2025
- OPEC+ meets virtually on Sunday and is expected to stick with the plan to pause early-2026 production increases, keeping attention on long-term capacity revisions rather than new cuts
- Ukraine–Russia peace discussions add downside risk to crude, as any eventual easing of Western sanctions could unlock more Russian barrels to China, India and Turkey
- Analysts note Russia may store barrels in the near term, which could support the prompt before the impact turns structurally bearish
- Petrobras cuts spending plan and lifts output outlook (Bloomberg)
- Petrobras reduced its 2026–2030 investment plan to $109 billion to protect cash flow in a lower-price environment
- The company expects production to reach 2.7 MMBbl/d by 2028, which adds to medium-term global supply at a time when the IEA is warning about oversupply
- Most spending will continue to focus on deep-water pre-salt development and new frontier exploration
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