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Oil Steady Near Month-Low as Ukraine Diplomacy Continues; Gas Firmer Ahead of EIA Report

Crude prices steady near month-low
- WTI’s prompt-month contract traded at $57.89/Bbl early Wednesday, down $0.06 as of 7:45 AM CT
- The White House signaled growing optimism around a Ukraine peace deal, a development that could ease restrictions on Russian barrels in an already oversupplied market
  - President Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement” as he sent negotiators to additional meetings
- Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said a peace deal could remove about $5/Bbl from the bank’s 2026 Brent outlook, shifting the forecast from $56 into the low $50s
- The API reported a modest 1.9 MMBbl crude draw last week, with official EIA data due later Wednesday
Russian flows to China drop (Kpler)
- Russian crude shipments to China are on pace for the lowest monthly volume in more than three years as sanctions tighten
- November loadings have averaged about 825 MBbl/d so far, the weakest level since February 2022

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Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Natural gas trades higher, ahead of EIA storage report
- January is now the prompt month Henry Hub contract after December expired yesterday
- The EIA will release its weekly natural gas inventory report today, with a small withdrawal expected
- Dry gas production remains high, at around 108.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
- Lower-48 temperatures are still forecast to be below the ten-year average for the next two weeks, supporting excess gas demand
Canadian gas storage hits all time high but LNG ramps up (NGI)
- Natural gas inventories in Canada hit record highs due to strong late-fall production
- AECO benchmark prices are increasing despite high storage levels
- The rise in LNG demand offsets the potentially bearish impact of high supply levels
- Flows into the recently started LNG Canada should continue to rise, potentially reaching 2 Bcf/d by Q1 2026