- Oil swings while traders watch Ukraine negotiations
- WTI prompt-month is nearly unchanged, down $0.02 at $58.04/Bbl early Monday (7:46 AM CT)
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said weekend talks in Geneva were “productive,” while a senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled “significant progress”
- According to deputy chief of staff Ihor Brusylo, territorial questions are expected to be addressed when the US and Ukrainian presidents meet, and NATO membership for Ukraine remains on the table
- European officials still see major hurdles, noting that the initial draft framework leaned too far in Moscow’s favor
- With major forecasting agencies projecting a growing global surplus on higher worldwide output, traders are watching whether a Ukraine deal materializes, and whether sanctions relief for Russia could bring additional supply back into the market
- Rubio added that negotiations may stretch past the original November 27 deadline set by Trump
- JPMorgan warns Brent could fall into the $30s
- JPMorgan’s head of commodities research, Natasha Kaneva, expects Brent to slip below $60 in 2026, fall into the low $50s by Q4, and end the year with a price starting with “$4”
- The bank’s 2027 outlook deteriorates further, with a deepening surplus expected to push Brent to an average of $42 and drift into the $30s by year-end
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