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First Look - Crude steady as fundamentals back in focus; Natural gas falls after Friday's late rally

Oil prices remain steady after last week’s big loss
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell just $0.07 to $65.45/Bbl Monday morning (7:51 AM CT)
- WTI suffered its biggest weekly loss in two years last week, the prompt-month contract was trading around $65 on Friday’s settle, following a 13% slump
- With the geopolitical risk premium evaporating, traders are now focused on supply and demand fundamentals
- OPEC+ is ready to consider another large hike of 411 MBbl/d for August when they meet this Sunday
  - This would be the fourth month in a row that the alliance increases the monthly production hike to triple the originally planned volumes
  - According to an analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia, OPEC+ has likely come to “an acceptance that a lower oil price will prevent further market share erosion”
Sanctions relief for Iran on the table
- President Trump suggested that “if they can be peaceful” he would support sanctions relief for Iran
- This follows his comments on social media last week with a nod to China to buy more Iranian oil, hinting at possible sanctions relief

Natural gas is sharply lower this morning, after Friday’s rally
- The August Henry Hub contract is down 22c to $3.51/MMbtu, while the Winter ‘25/’26 seasonal strip is down 14c to $4.50/MMbtu, and Summer ’26 is down 7c to $4.12/MMbtu (8:15 AM)
- Weather forecasts on Friday saw a sharp increase in temperatures over the next two weeks, but temperatures are expected to be below the ten-year average in the 11-15 day period
Canadian gas exports to the US hit 2025 low (NGI)
- Canadian exports to the Rockies have fallen to the lowest level of the year so far, with flows averaging 3.48 Bcf/d in June, down about 0.75 Bcf/d from the January average
- A moderate start to summer in the Northwest has led to weaker demand and a decline in cash prices
  - Spot prices at Sumas averaged only $0.53/MMbtu in the first 27 days of June, compared to $1.87/MMbtu in May
- Competition for Canadian gas could increase later this year, as LNG Canada begins receiving more gas, possibly supporting downstream prices in the US