- Oil prices rise on easing trade tensions
- WTI prompt-month contract gained $0.25 to $63.10/Bbl Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Prices ticked up following signs of improved US-China relations after a Trump-Xi call, despite expectations for rising OPEC+ supply
- Saudi Arabia is pushing for OPEC+ to raise output by at least 411 MBbl/d in both August and potentially September to capture peak summer demand (Bloomberg)
- The move marks a strategic shift from price defense to market share expansion, signaling tolerance for lower prices
- EIA reported a 4.3 MMBbl decline in US crude inventories last week, the largest weekly draw since November
- IEA: Global oil investments to decline in 2025
- Oil sector investment projected to fall 6% in 2025, led by reduced US tight oil spending and broader macroeconomic uncertainty
- Upstream oil and gas investment estimated at $570 billion (–4% YoY), while global refinery investment will drop to a 10-year low of $30 billion
- Natural gas field investment expected to remain flat year-over-year
- US moves to block ethane exports to China (Bloomberg)
- Enterprise Products received notice from the US Bureau of Industry and Security of intent to deny licenses for three ethane cargoes bound for China (~2.2 MBbls)
- Energy Transfer received a similar notice; US authorities cited concerns over potential military use in China’s civil-military integration
- Both firms are preparing responses, with Energy Transfer seeking emergency authorization and reapplying for export licenses
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