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First Look - Crude rises as geopolitical tensions outweigh OPEC+ supply hike

Crude climbs on geopolitical risk
- Geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices, with WTI prompt-month futures rising $2.93 to $63.72/Bbl by Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Ukraine launched coordinated drone strikes deep into Russia, targeting airfields as far east as Siberia
- Separately, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reported that Iran has produced a record volume of uranium enriched just below weapons-grade levels, complicating ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations
OPEC+ approves another 411 MBbl/d hike for July (Bloomberg)
- OPEC+ agreed Saturday to raise output by 411 MBbl/d in July, despite resistance from members including Russia
- Saudi Arabia reportedly pushed for the increase to penalize over-producers like Kazakhstan and Iraq, according to OPEC+ officials
- Russia, backed by Algeria and Oman, argued for a pause to assess the impact of earlier hikes
- With 1.3 MMBbl/d restored, the group is slightly beyond the halfway point in its plan to revive the full 2.2 MMBbl/d of previously withheld supply
- OPEC+ will reconvene on July 6 to decide on August volumes

Natural gas is trading higher by more than 20c, with July above $3.50/MMbtu
- The Winter ‘25/’26 seasonal strip is up 15c to $4.54/MMbtu, and Summer ’26 is higher by 6c to $4.09/MMbtu (8:00 AM)
- Forecasts for the South Central region warmed significantly over the weekend, implying a substantial gain in gas demand over the next two weeks
- Production is lower today, with output down nearly 1 Bcf/d to 104.36 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
Sabine Pass LNG flows drop for maintenance
- Feedgas inflows to the Sabine Pass LNG export plant fell to 3 Bcf/d from a total capacity of more than 5 Bcf/d, as the facility begins maintenance
- This outage is expected to last for several weeks, with work being done on two of the plants liquefaction trains and the Creole Trail pipeline which supplies the facility
- Today’s drop in feedgas inflows sunk total US feedgas demand to just below 14 Bcf/d, with Cameron LNG also still down for maintenance