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First Look - OPEC+ advances output decision, Trump eyes Russia sanctions

OPEC+ advances July output talks
- OPEC+ has moved up a key meeting to May 31 to finalize July production targets for eight core members, delegates said
- The group is weighing a third consecutive output hike of 411 MBbl/d following preliminary discussions last week
- WTI prompt-month futures fell $0.47 to $61.06/Bbl early Monday (7:45 AM CT)
Trump considers sanctions on Russia
- President Trump said he is weighing fresh sanctions on Russia as violence in Ukraine escalates
- He called Russian President Vladimir Putin “absolutely CRAZY” and blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for prolonging the conflict
China hesitates on return to US propane (Bloomberg)
- Chinese plastics manufacturers are slow to return to US propane despite easing trade tensions, citing tariff risks
- Instead, buyers are sourcing from Canada and the Arab Gulf, with deals closing at tighter premiums to benchmarks
- A 10% tariff on US propane limits margins for Chinese PDH units to around $20/ton, making US supply less attractive, according to Vortexa analyst Samantha Hartke

Natural gas prices are down slightly, after finishing last week unchanged
- Lower-48 weather forecasts shifted cooler over the weekend, on net, but temperatures are still forecast to warm towards the ten-year average over the next two weeks
- Gas production levels eased, with output back to 105.4 Bcf/d
Golden Pass LNG to boost workforce to avoid project delay (S&P)
- FERC told developers of the Golden Pass LNG project that they do not need permission to increase the peak construction workforce
- Golden Pass said that without an increase in the size of the workforce, progress “will be delayed, extending the time needed for project completion”
- Developers are continuing to guide for a startup in the forth quarter of 2025
- The project will have three liquefaction trains, with a total capacity of 2.4 Bcf/d