- Israel reportedly poised to strike Iran
- Oil prices jumped after a CNN report indicated Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.85 to $62.88/Bbl Wednesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Iran and the U.S. remain engaged in nuclear talks that could lead to sanctions relief and increased oil supply
- An Israeli strike would derail those talks and escalate regional tensions in the Middle East, which supplies roughly one-third of global crude
- Kazakhstan unable to meet OPEC+ target
- Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, in part due to its reluctance to rein in output from international oil majors operating its three mega-projects
- The burden of compliance has fallen on KazMunayGas, the state-owned firm, which would need to nearly shut down its own 390 MBbl/d output to meet May’s 1.4 MMBbl/d target
- OPEC+ has responded with larger group-wide production hikes to penalize non-compliant members, and Saudi Arabia has warned of further increases if quota breaches persist
- US eases on sanctions to keep Russia engaged
- President Trump has opted not to escalate sanctions on Russia to avoid derailing fragile Ukraine peace negotiations
- Despite Moscow’s resistance to a ceasefire, the US strategy aims to keep diplomatic channels open
- Meanwhile, the EU has moved forward with its latest sanctions package targeting Russia
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