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First Look - WTI slips as OPEC+ signals increased output

Crude prices slide on OPEC+ output signals
- WTI prompt-month futures fell $1.11 to $57.10/Bbl early Thursday (7:30 AM CT)
- Brent slipped below $60/Bbl as markets brace for increased OPEC+ supply
US shale to scale back rigs amid price drop
- US shale producers plan to cut drilling activity by about 4% by year-end, according to a Nabors Industries survey
- The move marks one of the first broad responses to the price slide triggered by Trump’s trade war
- Analysts warn further rig cuts are likely if crude stays below $60
- Matador Resources recently announced it will drop one of its nine rigs by mid-2025 due to weak pricing
IMF trims Gulf oil growth forecast
- The IMF cut its 2025 growth outlook for oil exporters in MENA, citing trade tensions and weaker oil prices
- Oil prices are now projected to average $66.90/Bbl next year, with regional growth seen at 2.3%

Natural gas is trading higher, reversing some losses from yesterday
- The June contract remains up about 36c from last week’s lows
- Weather forecast changes over the last three days imply stronger demand than forecasts were showing last week
- There was a sizeable drop in modeled gas production, with data from S&P showing output down 2.62 Bcf/d to 103.1 Bcf/d
First 100+ Bcf injection of 2025 expected today (S&P)
- Analysts are anticipating a triple-digit build in US gas inventories to be reported today by the EIA
- The median expectation on Bloomberg is a 109 Bcf build, with the survey ranging from 102-117 Bcf
- If these forecasts are correct, it could lead to inventories climbing slightly above the five-year average
- Mild weather over the past few weeks has supported larger storage builds and led to a sizeable reduction in the storage deficit