Market Insights > First Look

First Look - WTI setting up for worst monthly decline since 2021

Crude prices extend slide as demand outlook deteriorates
- WTI is on track for its steepest monthly loss in over three years, pressured by weakening demand expectations tied to the global trade war and growing supply concerns
- US consumer confidence dropped to a five-year low in April, driven by rising tariff concerns
- API reported a 3.8 MMBbl crude inventory build last week, signaling bearish supply-side pressure ahead of official EIA data
OPEC+ seen moving toward a larger output hike
- Saudi Arabia is expected to support a more aggressive OPEC+ production increase in June, with a Bloomberg survey showing 60% of market participants anticipate a larger-than-planned hike
- Earlier this month, the group approved a 411 MBbl/d May increase, triple the original volume, in a move aimed at pressuring over-producers Kazakhstan and Iraq
- Rystad Energy cut its US onshore crude growth forecast by more than 50%, citing slower activity

Natural gas prices are lower by 4c, reversing gains from yesterday
- Demand over the next two weeks continues to look limited, supporting stronger storage injections
- Lower 48 gas production moved slightly lower to 105.27 Bcf/d
- LNG feedgas demand moved higher to 16.72 Bcf/d, although inflows to export plants should begin to decline over the next several weeks due to seasonal drops in plant throughput
Haynesville production rises on better prices and outlook (S&P)
- Higher prices and stronger demand have allowed operators in the Haynesville to bring on additional production that was held back in 2024
- The CEO of Patterson-UTI said, ”It did ramp up a little bit faster in the Haynesville than we thought, especially on the completion side.”
- Rig activity in the region has averaged 33-36 rigs in 2025, down a few rigs compared to Q4 2024
- According to Commodity Insights, ”Production upside in 2025, and to a lesser extent in 2026, will come from the completion of DUCs and deferred turned-in-lines (DTILs),”