AEGIS Hedging : April 17, 2024

Oil trades lower by more than $1 to $84.15, heading for a third consecutive daily loss
- The move lower in oil prices comes despite a weaker US Dollar after Fed chairman Powell said they may not cut rates this year if inflation remains sticky
- WTI call option volume has surged to the highest level since November, led by September 2024 $100 call options
- The API is forecasting a build of 4.1 MMBbls in today's EIA inventory report
Saudi Arabia and UAE warn of dangers of conflict escalation (BBG)
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE called for maximum “self-restraint” in the region to avoid a further escalation of conflict in a joint statement
- This comes as Israel weighs a response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend
- The risk of a wider regional conflict is adding to the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices by risking a disruption to supply

Natural gas prices trade lower amid weakness in LNG exports offsetting support from lower production
- May ’24 Henry Hub is down 5.3c this morning to trade around $1.679/MMBtu
- The Summer ’24 strip is up 0.6c to $2.191 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 0.2c to $3.361
- Today's Euro Ensemble indicates cooler weather in most regions with a shift to warmer temperatures in the Southeast/South Central areas, returning to near-normal conditions after this weekend
May natural gas futures jump as NGTL pipeline ruptured and caught fire (NGI)
- May natural gas futures rose by 4.1c to $1.732/MMBtu on Tuesday following reports of a fire on the NGTL pipeline in Alberta, which reduced flows to 20,947 MMcf/d from a target of 21,719 MMcf/d
- TC Energy isolated and shut down the affected pipeline section near Edson, Alberta, with no significant commercial impact on the rest of the system
Venture Global requests approval to commission Phase II of Gator Express Pipeline by April 19 (Criterion)
- Venture Global has requested FERC approval to commission Phase II of the Gator Express Pipeline on or by April 19, involving 11.7 miles of pipeline ready to flow gas, connecting with TETCO
- Phase I construction faces unexpected delays, affecting 15.1 miles of pipeline linking Plaquemines LNG terminal with TETCO and TGP
- The completed Gator Express Pipeline system, including both phases, will have a capacity of 3.94 Bcf/d, crucial for powering Plaquemines LNG's terminal facilities

April 17, 2024