AEGIS Hedging - Metals First Look
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LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $41.25 higher to $3610.50 at 8:41:26 AM
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(Dow Jones) – The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum cash bid price reached a four-year high last week. Aluminum could be heading toward $4,000 a ton in the next three months, with its most bullish set-up in over 50 years, according to Citigroup. The metal has been rocked by one of the largest supply shocks since the 1950s. This comes from analysts at the New York-based bank, led by Wenyu Yao, a senior metals strategist, in a note on Monday. On Monday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum cash bid price was at $3,635, with a four-year high of $3,767 reached last week. As the probability of continued tightening rises, the analysts said they see a "credible path" to aluminum hitting $4,000 within the next three months - and averaging at for the second half of the year - if weakening demand is unable to offset constrained supply. In their bull case, the metal will average $5,350 a ton in 2027, which they have said has a 30% chance. Multiple aluminum smelters in the Middle East were forced to halt or reduce operations as the war in Iran escalated. The region accounts for around 9% of global production, but a much larger proportion of seaborne trade, according to ING. The Citi analysts wrote that they are anticipating a 2.7-million ton reduction in supply this year, even as demand slows. Only a severe recession similar to the one in the early 1980s or the global financial crisis could help bolster supplies. In their view, if aluminum consumption outweighs its production, inventory drawdowns will have to support the imbalance - which Citigroup says is the main issue currently facing the market.
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LME Copper 3M Select trades $-90 lower to $13498.50 at 8:41:26 AM
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CME HRC Steel last traded at $1080 and $1 higher at 5/18/2026
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Price Indications
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Today's Charts
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Metals Factor Matrix
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AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices
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Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.
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