Crude declines as Venezuela tensions rise and Ukraine intensifies strikes
The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.29 to $59.03/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
President Trump met late Monday to discuss Venezuela as US forces mass near the country and White House rhetoric against Nicolás Maduro intensifies
Geopolitical focus also centers on Russia, where Ukraine has continued targeting key energy infrastructure, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, the main route for Kazakhstan’s exports
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow Tuesday for talks with President Vladimir Putin, though prospects for a peace agreement remain uncertain
The heightened tensions are adding a modest risk premium to crude and partially offsetting concerns about a growing global surplus
Russian export barrels increasingly stranded at sea (Bloomberg)
US sanctions are making it harder for Moscow to place cargoes, pushing the volume of Russian oil at sea up roughly 20% over the past three months
Voyage times for ESPO crude from Kozmino to China climbed above 12 days for November loadings, compared with a little over eight days in August
Total Russian oil on tankers exceeded 180 MMBbl at the end of November, with some ships diverting from planned destinations or taking longer routes
Natural gas trades lower after reaching nearly $5/MMbtu
The January Henry Hub contract traded up to $4.98/MMbtu this morning, but has since turned lower
Demand over the next two weeks continues to look strong, with Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures forecast to be below the ten-year average for the entirety of the next two weeks
A winter storm is currently impacting much of the Northeast US, lifting regional spot prices
Dry gas production remains near 108 Bcf/d, off the weekend highs of 109.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
Pennsylvania supply project receives final permits (S&P)
National Fuel Gas has received the final permits it needs to build the Tioga Pathway project in Pennsylvania
The project will add 190 MMcf/d of new capacity in Tioga County, PA, interconnecting with Transcontinental and Tennessee Gas pipelines, starting November 2026
National Fuel Gas said the project will improve connectivity to historically constrained markets, as well as increase the potential for volumes to access the US Gulf Coast
This is one of a few new projects for the Northeast, including the 2 Bcf/d Borealis expansion and the 600 MMcf/d MVP Boost project
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