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Oil Climbs on Prospects of US-India Deal; Gas Gains as Cooler Weather Lifts Demand

October 22, 2025 | Narciso Cano

Oil rises amid signs of US-India deal to curb Russian crude
- WTI prompt-month contract gained $1.23 to $58.74 Wednesday morning (7:55 AM CT)
- President Trump said Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him during a phone call that India would gradually wind down purchases of Russian oil
  - According to the Mint newspaper, the US and India are nearing a trade deal that could reduce tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% from roughly 50%
  - In exchange, New Delhi may agree to a phased reduction in Russian crude imports, the report said
- Meanwhile, the EU is expected to approve its 19th sanctions package against Russia at a summit Thursday after Slovakia withdrew its objections
  - The package aims to further deprive Moscow of energy revenue by banning Russian LNG imports and targeting Russian banks and crypto exchanges
- The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 MMBbl draw in US crude inventories last week, with official EIA data due later Wednesday
- The Trump administration also announced plans to purchase 1 MMBbl for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of lower prices to begin replenishing stockpiles

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Haynesville Appalachian Permian Rockies

Natural gas trades higher for a third day
- The November Henry Hub contract is up slightly, following two days of higher prices
- Lower-48 average temperatures are forecasted to remain below the ten-year average for almost all of the next two weeks, supporting near-term gas demand
- Yesterday, several data vendors showed gas production down sharply in the morning, but this was later revised higher to about 105 Bcf/d, where output remains this morning
Western Canada gas storage reaches record level (NGI)
- Natural gas storage in Western Canada has reached an all-time high, as strong production intersected with pipeline maintenance
- This has suppressed gas prices in the region with prices at the AECO hub trading around $0.50/MMbtu last week and trading negative at the end of last month
- So far, the startup of LNG Canada has not helped alleviate the oversupply issue, but with the plant now estimated to be taking around 1 Bcf/d, fundamentals could improve in 2026

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