- Oil gains as markets weigh prospects for U.S.–China breakthrough
- The WTI prompt-month contract climbed $0.63 to $58.15/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:50 AM CT)
- President Trump said he expects a “really great trade deal” ahead of next week’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping in South Korea, where both leaders are set to tackle long-standing trade disputes
- Goldman Sachs noted that a “long-anticipated global surplus has started to show,” citing satellite observations and official inventory data from the IEA and US EIA
- OECD commercial stocks have risen by 340 MBbl so far this year, roughly one-quarter of the expected 2025 build, with the share projected to reach one-third by year-end 2025
- Goldman added that while the fundamental outlook remains bearish, further price declines may be gradual as most of the anticipated stock builds are already priced in and strong diesel crack spreads continue to lend support
- Russia’s crude exports approach post-invasion peak (Bloomberg)
- Russia’s seaborne crude exports rose to their highest level in 29 months over the past four weeks, nearing levels last seen before its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine
- Flows may be nearing a ceiling as ports run at historical capacity, refineries resume full operations after repairs, and seasonal winter conditions begin to tighten logistics
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