Market Insights > First Look

Oil Rebounds on US-China Trade Optimism; Gas Falls Despite Record LNG Demand

Oil rebounds as Trump signals willingness to engage China
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.57 to $59.47/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Crude prices gained after President Trump indicated a willingness to cooperate with China to ease escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers
- “We’ll be fine with China,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, though he maintained plans to impose additional tariffs on November 1
  - On Friday, he announced intentions to double tariffs on Chinese goods and expand export controls to “any and all critical software”
- Separately, the president said he is considering arming Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles capable of striking deeper into Russia, a move that could increase geopolitical risk to oil supplies
US sanctions on Chinese oil terminal threaten refinery run cuts (Bloomberg)
- The recent blacklisting of the Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, which handles roughly 9% of China’s crude imports, could force run cuts of up to 250 MBbl/d across refineries in Shandong Province
- The targeting of Rizhao and other port infrastructure marks a broader escalation in the US crackdown on participants in the China-Iran energy trade, moving beyond restrictions on independent refiners

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

November Henry Hub falls to one-year low
- The prompt NYMEX contract has continued to move lower, with prices now just above $3/MMbtu
- Gas production remains lower, near 104 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
- LNG feedgas demand hit a new record of 17.44 Bcf/d over the weekend, as the Cove Point LNG facility returned from maintenance
Last coal plant in New England retired (S&P)
- The Merrimack Power Station, located in New Hampshire, has been closed three years earlier than planned
- This was the last coal power plant operating in the New England region, and has been the target of environmental groups for several years
- The early retirement comes despite recent initiatives by the Department of Energy to extend the life of US coal plants
- While the plant has run at significantly reduced rates since 2016, it has helped during times of peak winter demand