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First Look - Oil slides on renewed trade pressure; natural gas finds support from LNG recovery

Oil pulls back on tariff concerns despite ongoing Middle East tensions
- Crude prices eased after recent gains driven by geopolitical risk, as renewed U.S. tariff threats sparked a broader risk-off sentiment
  - President Trump said he would notify trade partners within the next one to two weeks of plans to set unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reinstate higher duties on multiple economies
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $1.17 to $66.98/Bbl as of Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Separately, the U.S. ordered non-emergency personnel to leave its embassy in Baghdad following Iranian threats to target American assets in the region if provoked over its nuclear program
- Despite rising tensions, the U.S. and Iran are expected to meet in Oman on Sunday for a sixth round of nuclear negotiations
Chinese vessel redirects U.S. ethane cargo to India amid trade disruptions (Bloomberg)
- The STL Qianjiang is currently transporting a cargo of U.S. ethane to India, diverting from its typical route to China amid escalating trade tensions
- The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute has disrupted established ethane flows, leaving buyers to reassign or resell volumes tied to long-term contracts
- However, a draft agreement reached June 10 between U.S. and Chinese negotiators would lift the de facto ban on U.S. ethane exports to China, a potentially pivotal development for the global ethane market

The July natural gas contract rose 9.0c to $3.597/MMBtu Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT), supported by increased LNG flows and upward revisions to temperature forecasts
- Late-cycle pipeline nominations on Wednesday showed a net 431 MMcf/d increase in LNG deliveries, with nearly every terminal reporting gains
- While LNG volumes remain somewhat constrained, Wednesday’s deliveries were the highest since May
- The largest increase was at Cameron LNG, which appears to be returning from maintenance
- The Euro Ens model continued to trend warmer across the Lower 48, with CDDs rising for a third straight day
- The broad-based warming pattern is expected to lift cooling demand in the near term
Cheniere seeks Sabine Pass expansion (BOE Report)
- Cheniere Energy has submitted a request to FERC for authorization to expand its Sabine Pass LNG terminal, the largest in the U.S.
- The proposed addition includes three new liquefaction trains, each with a peak capacity of approximately 0.8 Bcf/d
European gas prices climb on warmer weather and storage risks (Bloomberg)
- European natural gas prices rose for a second consecutive session, driven by hot weather and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations
- Elevated temperatures are boosting cooling demand and could slow the pace of summer storage injections
- As of this week, European gas storage facilities are just over 50% full, raising concerns about winter supply adequacy

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