- Oil Rises as Iran Talks Stall, China Trade Hopes Build
- WTI prompt-month contract gained $1.11 to $66.09/Bbl as of Wednesday morning (7:50 AM CT)
- Market sentiment improved after President Trump cast doubt on a near-term nuclear deal with Iran while signaling confidence in trade negotiations with China
- About 14.7 MMBbls of Iranian crude are floating off Shandong, with teapot refiners reportedly hesitating to discharge cargoes due to fear of US sanctions, according to Kpler
- Trump's remarks added to the recent upward momentum in oil, driven by optimism over a US-China trade breakthrough.
- The EIA expects global oil supply to exceed demand by 800 MBbl/d in 2025 and sees US crude output plateauing until late next year
- US oil production is projected to decline in 2026, though Gulf of Mexico growth may cushion the drop with 300 MBbl/d of new output this year and 250 MBbl/d in 2026.
- The API reported a modest 400 MBbl draw in US crude inventories last week, with official EIA data expected later today
- Guyana to begin Yellowtail crude exports in late August (Bloomberg)
- ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project in Guyana will ship its first crude cargo between August 31 and early September
- The start of Yellowtail exports marks the next phase of Guyana’s rapid offshore production growth, adding to rising South American supply entering global markets
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