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First Look - Oil holds gains; natural gas slips on mild temperatures and maintenance

Oil prices edge higher, extending the recent rally
- WTI prompt-month rose $0.45 to $65.74/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- WTI options grew less bearish Monday, the second-month put skew hit its lowest level in over four months as outright prices continued climbing (Bloomberg)
- The US and Iran are scheduled for a sixth round of nuclear talks this Sunday in Oman
Gulf of Mexico Sees Renewed Growth Amid US Energy Dominance Push (Bloomberg)
- US oil production is projected to rise in both 2025 and 2026, driven largely by the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to add 300 MBbl/d of new supply this year and 250 MBbl/d next year
- This marks a reversal from the past two decades of shale-led growth, as long-cycle offshore projects come online while investment in shale declines
- The Gulf’s rebound reflects a shift in strategy, operators are favoring smaller, more cost-efficient platforms and leveraging new technologies to boost output and overcome logistical challenges

Natural gas is trading slightly lower, after falling 15c yesterday
- Demand is forecast to remain mostly flat over the next two-weeks, as temperatures remain near the ten-year average
- Production has turned lower after rising toward 107 Bcf/d over the weekend, with S&P data showing output now at 104.5 Bcf/d
  - Todays drop was primarily driven by maintenance in the Northeast
- LNG feedgas remains lower around 14 Bcf/d amid maintenance
Cheniere to secure FID for Corpus Christi expansion soon (Bloomberg)
- LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy, said they expect to reach a final investment decision for Corpus Christi midscale trains 8-9 “in the coming months."
- Cheniere will continue expanding its Corpus Christi export plant in the next few years, with the stage three expansion currently starting up

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