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First Look - Crude steady on trade optimism; OPEC+ output still lags

Crude edges higher ahead of trade negotiations
- WTI prompt-month rose $0.45 to $65.03/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- US and Chinese negotiators are set to meet in London, raising hopes for progress on trade disputes that have weighed on global markets this year
OPEC+ quota increases fail to lift output
- Despite higher production quotas, actual supply from OPEC+ has yet to rise meaningfully, according to Morgan Stanley
- The bank expects core OPEC+ members to add 420 MBbl/d from June to September, with half of that coming from Saudi Arabia
- Morgan Stanley still forecasts a market surplus as non-OPEC+ supply rises by 1.1 MMBbl/d, outpacing demand growth
US Senate stalls on Russia sanctions plan
- President Trump’s remarks suggesting he might let Russia and Ukraine continue fighting have complicated bipartisan Senate efforts to impose sanctions on Moscow
- Momentum behind the proposal has faded, with lawmakers now hesitant to confront the White House

Natural gas is trading lower, reversing some gains from last week
- Lower-48 gas demand is expected to be mostly flat over the next two weeks, with temperatures near the ten-year average
- Production reached nearly 107 Bcf/d over the weekend, but has eased to 106.4 this morning, according to data from S&P
- LNG feedgas remains around 14 Bcf/d amid maintenance at multiple facilities
Plaquemines LNG gets FERC approval to flow more gas (S&P)
- FERC granted permission to Plaquemines LNG developer Venture Global to introduce feedgas to another block of liquefaction trains, as the startup process continues
- Venture Global is currently starting block 12 of 18, with each block containing two liquefaction trains
- The facility has been taking about 2.6 Bcf/d recently, and is expected to reach 3.6 Bcf/d by the end of the year

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