California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) prices reached the lowest level since 2015 in January as state data showed a fresh record build in unused credit. Prompt credits fell to $56.00/t, with contango generally widening from pressure on front month credits. A state advisory board urged CARB to delay the final scoping plan ruling until July 2024. Market participants are anticipating more delays to the scoping plana and the prompt remains weak.
Oregon LCFS credits have lost more than half their value since October 2023. The state’s credit price maintains a hefty premium to the California and Washington State programs, drawing increasing amounts of renewable diesel. Oregon DEQ quarterly data showed 321,791 credits generated from renewable diesel during Q3, up 33% from the previous quarter and accounting for 47% of all credits generated.
IN THIS REPORT AEGIS EXAMINES: