The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.52 to $59.56/Bbl on Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
Crude softened after three straight days of gains, with the WTI futures holding inside a ~$4 range since early November
Markets remain focused on the potential for a Ukraine–Russia peace deal
Any geopolitical risk premium will be weighed against signs of a growing global surplus, with rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply outpacing modest demand growth
This week’s monthly outlooks from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC may provide more clarity on the balance
Russia’s oil trade with India down (Bloomberg)
India’s imports of Russian crude are set to plunge to a near four-year low early next year after sustained US pressure
India bought a near-record 2.1 MMBbl/d in June, but volumes could fall to as low as 600 MBbl/d next month
Some rebound is still possible as unsanctioned suppliers and newer intermediaries find ways to move Russian barrels
Indian refiners continue to buy Russian crude when the economics work, but sanctions scrutiny has pushed them toward higher-priced Middle Eastern grades, more US barrels, and new sources such as Guyana and Brazil
If Russian flows eventually circumvent sanctions and return in larger volumes, that would add to the current surplus and put further downward pressure on crude prices into 2026
Natural gas falls 30c, reversing gains from Friday
The January Henry Hub contract is down about 30c this morning, with prices falling below $5/MMbtu, after last week’s rally (8:15 AM)
Over the weekend the Euro operational and ensemble weather models shifted warmer, although the GFS weather model still shows a cold pattern for the Lower-48
According to data from S&P, gas production reached 109 Bcf/d again this weekend, but has eased to 108.5 Bcf/d this morning
LNG feedgas is back above 20 Bcf/d and hit a new record of 20.52 Bcf/d on Friday
Golden Pass LNG authorized to introduce feedgas (NGI)
Late last week, FERC staff determined that the Golden Pass LNG export plant is ready to proceed to the final commissioning steps, which involve introducing feedgas to Train 1
This comes as a cargo of LNG should be offloaded at the plant soon to cool down on-site equipment
Once operational, Train 1 will have a capacity of 790 MMcf/d and the facility as a whole will have a capacity of 2.37 Bcf/d
Train 2 should be online this summer followed by Train 3 at the end of 2026
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