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First Look - Oil rises as demand concerns grow amid trade war escalation; gas climbs

Market focuses on demand outlook amid renewed trade war
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.92 to $69.37/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- The possibility of softening demand comes at a time when the market is already expected to be oversupplied later this year
  - The IEA projected that world oil consumption will grow by just 700 MBbl/d in 2025
  - The largest quarterly reductions were to countries affected by the trade war including China, Japan, Korea, the US and Mexico
- President Trump’s latest round of tariffs threatens to worsen the situation
  - The new levies tariffs include a 50% tariff on Brazil, the US’s second-largest partner trailing only China
  - It is not known whether Brazil’s crude will be exempt from announced tariffs like Iraq’s oil is
President Trump to make “major statement “on Russia
- Trump said he’d be making a “major statement” on Russia on Monday, potentially increasing US sanctions on Russia

Natural gas is higher, after weather forecasts shift warmer
- The August Henry Hub contract is up 10c, after settling lower on Friday (8:15 AM)
- Forecasts for the Midwest and Southeast regions warmed over the weekend, with Lower-48 average temperatures now expected to be above normal in the second half of the two-week forecast period
- LNG feedgas demand continues to be quite strong this summer, with inflows into export plants totaling 16.4 Bcf/d this morning
Mississippi Crossing project moves into FERC review (PGJ)
- Kinder Morgan's Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company has filed an application to build the Mississippi Crossing Project, now under FERC review
- The project includes 208 miles of new pipe and additional infrastructure like compressor stations and metering facilities, with a capacity of 2.1 Bcf/d
- The pipeline aims to address regional demand growth, with construction starting in 2027 and service in November 2028