- IEA forecasts the weakest oil demand growth rate since 2009, except for the year of Covid
- In their latest monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA said incremental demand would be 700 MBbl/d in 2025, down from last month’s forecast of 720 MMBbl/d
- The agency highlights that many of the countries with slower growth were the target, or at the center of tariff turmoil
- Saudi crude output was raised above quota last month in a rare OPEC+ breach, according to the IEA
- Separately, there is a report that Saudi Arabia is asking companies that OPEC uses for independent analysis of oil-production level to submit a lower figure for the kingdom’s June output to stay in compliance (Bloomberg) <insert smirk>
- Goldman forecasts OPEC+’s next supply hike will be its last for a while
- “Our base case remains that they will be done raising productions once the 2.2 MMBbl/d round of cuts is unwound” at the groups next meeting which is in early August
- “We forecast a surplus for both this year and next and that’s why we think they will soon be done raising production”
- According to Bloomberg data, Goldman Sachs has a WTI price forecast of $61/Bbl for 2025 and $52/Bbl for 2026
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