AEGIS Hedging - Metals First Look
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Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here.
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LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $-32.50 lower to $3234 at 8:37:06 AM
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LME Copper 3M Select trades $-85.25 lower to $14074.50 at 8:37:19 AM
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Bloomberg) – The copper market had another volatile session, with a key one-day spread spiking to levels last seen during a historic squeeze in 2021. Metal for delivery Wednesday on the London Metal Exchange traded at a premium of as much as $110 a ton to contracts for a day later, the widest backwardation since an acute shortage of immediate supplies almost five years ago. The so-called Tom/next spread on the LME represents the price to roll positions forward by one day. Tuesday’s flare-up points to stress for holders of short positions just ahead of the third Wednesday of the month, which is the main focus of liquidity in the exchange’s contracts. On Monday, spot prices jumped to as much as $545 a ton higher than three-month futures, and remained at a steep premium on Tuesday. President Donald Trump’s Commerce Department was due to make a recommendation on copper tariffs by the end of June, but no announcement has emerged from the White House. Meanwhile, copper has kept flowing to American ports, encouraged by higher US prices.
The steep premium for prompt supplies creates a lucrative opportunity for traders to ease the tightness by selling copper in the near-term and simultaneously buying back longer-dated contracts at a discount. On Tuesday, the LME’s global warehouse network saw the biggest increase in readily available copper inventories since April, rising by more than 20,000 tons. Benchmark three-month futures on the LME were 0.7% lower at $14,063 a ton by 11:38 a.m. in London. Other LME base metals also fell, except nickel and lead. “The outright price is still struggling to follow the extreme tightness in the nearby spread,” analysts at Sucden Financial Ltd wrote in a note. “Unless copper can hold above $14,200 a ton with stronger liquidity, we would be cautious about chasing the upside.” In China, elevated copper prices have curbed buying appetite, pushing inventories in Shanghai, the country’s trading and consumption hub, steadily higher over the past weeks to around 80,000 tons, according to data from Shanghai Metals Market.
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CME HRC Steel last traded at $1196 and $0 lower at 8/17/2026
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Price Indications
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Today's Charts
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Metals Factor Matrix
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AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices
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Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.
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