AEGIS Hedging - Metals First Look
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Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here.
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LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $-6 lower to $3144.50 at 8:46:49 AM
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LME Copper 3M Select trades $93.50 higher to $13620 at 8:46:50 AM
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(Bloomberg) – A closely-watched gauge of China’s copper market has risen to the highest in more than a year, as a tax shake-up in the metal’s biggest market spurs a shortage of scrap and boosts demand for imports. The premium paid for imported copper over local supplies widened to $100 a ton on Friday, according to data from Shanghai Metals Market. That’s up from a low of $20 a ton that was set in late January, and the first time that the metric has hit the three-digit mark since May last year. Copper on the London Metal Exchange has gained about 9% so far in 2026, aided by optimism about demand, speculation the US may impose a tariff on refined metal and shifts in inventories. That’s offset jitters caused by the Iran war, concerns the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy and recent signs that optimism about artificial intelligence — a key driver of future metals usage — may be overdone. An additional driver may be Beijing’s campaign against the so-called invoice economy in which traders use tax receipts to secure financing. “We attribute the recent tightening mostly to substitution from scrap into cathode, rather than to end demand,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Lavinia Forcellese wrote in a July 20 note. “Tighter VAT enforcement on scrap in China has constrained domestic scrap circulation,” they added, referring to value-added tax by its initials. The rising premiums and falling stockpiles in some centers may point to underlying support in the physical market. Inventories in LME-tracked warehouses on Friday fell to the lowest since March. Traders are withdrawing copper from the LME to deliver to the Chinese market, according to people familiar with the matter. Stockpiles in China, meanwhile, are at the bottom of their seasonal range and offer “little inventory cushion” for the market, the Goldman analysts said. In the US, by contrast, Comex-tracked copper holdings are at a record, having expanded for the past eight quarters.
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CME HRC Steel last traded at $1154 and $0 lower at 7/17/2026
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Price Indications
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Today's Charts
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Metals Factor Matrix
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AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices
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Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.
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