Aluminum Moves Higher on Speculation that Mideast Smelter Recovery may be Slow

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $13 higher to $3398.50 at 8:40:56 AM

  • (Bloomberg) – Aluminum edged higher, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifting its price forecasts for the metal on the expectation that damaged Middle Eastern smelters will need time to restore output.  News of an interim US-Iran agreement earlier in the week sent aluminum to the lowest in more than two months, although there’s a growing focus on the remaining sticking points after negotiations for a permanent peace deal were delayed as fighting intensified in southern Lebanon.  Direct attacks on smelters early in the war have prompted warnings that the industry is facing its biggest shortage in decades. Goldman analysts including Lavinia Forcellese said in a note Thursday that they expect damaged capacity to restart in early 2027 rather than the second half of this year.  The US-Iran deal “has reduced severe-disruption risk, but smelter output will likely recover more slowly than flows because damaged capacity must be repaired and restarted gradually,” they wrote.  The bank raised its aluminum price forecasts to $3,300 a ton for the third quarter and an average of $2,950 for next year. It also forecast a larger supply deficit this year at 720,000 tons, up from a previous estimate of 570,000 tons, even with the expectation of stronger supply from Indonesia and China to help offset lower Middle East output.  On Wednesday, analysts at Citigroup Inc. said a recent selloff in Chinese aluminum stocks was overdone and recommended that investors buy on weakness. Prices and margins are expected to stay higher for longer, analysts including Jack Shang said.

• LME Copper 3M Select trades $-75.75 lower to $13615 at 8:40:58 AM

• CME HRC Steel last traded at $1120 and $0 lower at 6/18/2026

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