Crude jumps as Houthis target Saudi energy infrastructure
The WTI front-month contract rose $2.00 to $93.48/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Yemen’s Houthis claimed they targeted Saudi Arabia’s 400 MBbl/d Jazan refinery and other facilities supplying the domestic market, forcing the complex to shut down
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said refined-product markets are showing signs of tightness even as the broader outlook for crude remains relatively balanced
“It’s pretty, pretty tight and inflexible out there as far as the market is concerned,” Hardy said, adding that inventories are near the bottom of their range
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 and December 2027 oil price forecasts by $5/Bbl based on new assumptions that Middle East supply disruptions will persist into next year
The bank now forecasts WTI at $80/Bbl for December 2026 and $75/Bbl for December 2027
“Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict,” Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said, adding that “risks to our price forecast remain significantly tilted to the upside”
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran plans to announce a new maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf and establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days
Rezaei said vessels entering the Iranian zone without authorization could be added to an Iranian sanctions list
Gas edges lower on mixed forecast shifts
Natural gas is down -1.0c to $2.965/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
The L48 had polarized forecast changes
The Midwest and Southeast lost close to 40°F over forecast period combined
The rest of the L48 offset the losses, gaining heat in the 15-day period
The initial forecast for September 19-22 is much cooler than now
L48 average temps are expected to fall to 70°F in late September, down from close to 80°F tomorrow (Criterion)
A quicker start to shoulder season could raise storage levels heading into withdrawal season
LNG firms to 19.7 Bcf/d ahead of multiple shoulder season maintenance events
Feedgas demand will experience approximately 0.4-0.6 Bcf/d of demand loss to maintenance events for the following two months
Cove point liquefaction maintenance will run 23 days from late Sep to early Oct, making up the majority of the demand loss
Southeast spot gas prices reach multi-year highs amidst heatwave (S&P)
Cash prices at Transco Zone 5 South, Transco Zone 4, and Florida Gas Zone 3 all rose above $7.60/MMBtu on Sept 4
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