The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.06 to $86.89/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will provide additional details Monday on its campaign to further isolate Iran economically
The measures are expected to target Tehran directly, while potentially extending to countries that continue doing business with Iran, including China
Beijing pushed back against the threat of additional sanctions, arguing that economic pressure will not resolve the dispute and calling instead for a diplomatic solution
“It is unclear to me how we are going to choke off Iran more than we have financially without triggering immense blowback from China,” said Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council
Meanwhile, Rystad Energy expects Chinese crude purchases to increase by as much as 1.2 MMBbl/d from 3Q through year-end 2026 after the world’s largest crude importer reduced purchases and refinery runs in response to the Middle East-driven price spike
Gas moves higher weather models reverse sharply hotter
Natural gas is up 2.6c to $2.759/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
The L48 gained north of 13°F across the forecast period, lead by the South Central and the Midwest (Criterion)
The EIA reported a weekly build of 16 Bcf in natural gas inventories, bringing L48 working gas storage to 3,169 Bcf
East regional storage has rebounded rapidly this summer, despite heat and power demand
East region storage started injection season below the 5 year average, at 277 Bcf at the start of April
It’s now at 708 Bcf, above the 683 Bcf average for this time in the year
BofA analysts point to a risk of price induced Appalachia curtailments this fall, due to time spread (NGI)
Permian processing capacity buildout to lag behind egress
Roughly 4.55 Bcf/d of new Permian processing capacity is slated through 2029, which falls significantly below the amount of egress slated to come online (NGI)
Analysts point to a potential quality-driven bottleneck that could limit basis relief over the next few years
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