The prompt-month WTI contract rose $0.49 to $83.69/Bbl Wednesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
The IEA now expects the global oil market to run a 1.8 MMBbl/d deficit in 3Q26 as renewed US-Iran hostilities and disruptions to regional shipping constrain supply
Despite the tighter near-term outlook, the agency still sees balances shifting into a sizable surplus in 2027, with global supply projected to exceed consumption by 4.6 MMBbl/d
President Trump said the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, although visible tanker traffic through the waterway remains limited
Some crude continues to leave the Persian Gulf, including aboard vessels operating with transponders switched off, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said nearly 9 MMBbl/d is moving through the strait with US military assistance
An Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. spokesperson said Iraqi crude exports have recently increased to roughly 2 MMBbl/d in August, above earlier estimates of 1.5-1.7 MMBbl/d, supported by increased shuttling activity
Domestically, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 9.1 MMBbl build in US crude inventories last week, with official government data scheduled for release later Wednesday
Forecasted temperature warming and feedgas recovery lead gas higher
Natural gas is up 5.5c to $2.822/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
The L48 gained 3.2°F of heat over the forecast period, with minor improvements across the forecast period east of the Rockies (Criterion)
Feedgas demand returned to form after the drop yesterday, up over 1 Bcf/d to 18.6 Bcf/d
Sabine pass lead the rebound higher, gaining back 700 MMcf/d
Creole Trail outage is flagged for August 25-28 that will trim roughly 150 MMcf/d from Sabine Pass (Criterion)
Freeport is slated for a full return to normal rates in late August
US Battery storage capacity grows 70% annually over last three years (EIA, S&P)
During the first half of 2026 operators added 8.3 GW of battery storage capacity
54 GW of storage capacity are expected to come online by the end of 2028
More battery storage capacity will compete with natural gas in the power stack during evening hours
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