Crude rises as traders assess mounting supply risks
The WTI prompt-month contract gained $1.62 to $85.21/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is expected to decide later Friday whether to suspend operations indefinitely, potentially disrupting Kazakhstan’s primary crude export route
Bloomberg reports the terminal has handled roughly 1.8 MMBbl/d in recent months, predominantly Kazakh crude, while tanker activity near the port has already declined following Ukrainian attacks
A shutdown of the CPC terminal would compound existing supply concerns as the market contends with restricted flows and heightened shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
Meanwhile, oil-transfer operations through Hormuz have accelerated following a recent slowdown, allowing more barrels to leave the Gulf despite escalating hostilities
Bloomberg satellite data and commentary point to an increase in outbound vessel traffic with buyers of Gulf-origin crude beginning to receive cargoes that had previously been delayed
Gas flat as cooling in the East offsets warming in the West
Natural gas is up 0.8c to $2.766/MMBtu (07:30 AM CDT)
The Midwest lost 22.7°F across the forecast period (Crtierion)
The Midwest, especially in major population centers around Chicago, are forecast to be cooler than the 10-year average almost every day throughout the forecast period (CWG)
The Western US is the opposite, with much of the West coast and Rockies experiencing temperatures 4-8°F higher than the 10-year average
NextDecade maintains first gas to Rio Grande LNG by late-2026 (Criterion)
The facility is expected to receive first gas late this year, and achieve first LNG in 1H27
The EIA reported a 28 Bcf build in US working gas storage yesterday
This was lower than the lowest analyst estimation of 33 Bcf
Inventories are now at a deficit of 32 Bcf to last year and surplus of 185 Bcf to the five-year average
Nearly 350 Bcf of new US L48 storage capacity is planned in 2026-2030, most of which coming as Salt dome storage in the South Central (S&P)
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