Crude tumbles as US-Iran hostilities temporarily ease
The WTI prompt-month contract fell $5.29 to $84.02/Bbl on Monday morning (7:46 AM CT)
After 13 consecutive nights of strikes intended to limit Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping, the US appears to have paused its military campaign since late Friday
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Trump was allowing diplomatic efforts “some space”
Iran also refrained from further retaliation and held discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz
However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei maintained that no formal negotiations are currently underway
Crude loadings also restarted at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, the primary export route for Kazakh oil
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted facilities associated with Saudi Arabia in Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend
Crude prices declined across the forward curve, with the Bal 2026 strip falling back below $80/Bbl while Cal 2027 traded near $71.60/Bbl (7:45 AM CT)
Gas prompt sells off as L48 early August forecast cools
Natural gas is down -9.7c to $2.774/MMBtu (As of 07:46 AM CDT)
The L48 cooled 14°F overall over the weekend (Criterion)
Losses were concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, both losing north of 17°F in the 1–5-day range
This El Niño isn’t your typical El Niño, as it is breaking records against other super cases like 2015 and 1997, with key central Tropical Pacific already well above the +2.0°C super threshold (Criterion)
Some subsurface anomalies are warmer than 9°C above normal
Super El Niño temperatures are associated with warmer winter temperatures in key demand areas in the L48 in the Northeast and Midwest
Similar to July, the L48 August CDD estimate is tracking slightly hotter than the 10-year average
US sets all-time electric output record of 101,391 GWh (S&P)
The US electric output was 101,391 GWh for the week ended July 18, surpassing the record set two weeks earlier
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