Crude prices steady with little traction in US-Iran talks
The WTI prompt-month contract slipped $0.21 to $92.83/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
President Trump said discussions with Iran continue to advance, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal aimed at ending hostilities with Israel
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, limited evidence of a breakthrough has kept geopolitical risk in focus, leaving crude on track for a weekly gain as disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persist
On Thursday, Trump described negotiations as being in their “final stages,” though he provided few details, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained that talks had yet to produce meaningful results
Supply disruptions have weighed on crude flows into Asia, contributing to a sharp decline in Chinese imports during May
According to Kpler, China’s crude arrivals fell to 6.7 MMBbl/d, down from an average of approximately 10.4 MMBbl/d in 2025
Separately, the UK government has increased its internal oil price outlook, concluding that crude could remain near $100/Bbl through 2028 even if Washington and Tehran ultimately reach a peace agreement
The Cal 2028 WTI strip was trading at $70.86/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Gas gives back gains as the Rockies and Midwest region’s forecasts cool
Natural gas is down -3.7c to $3.299/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
There were mild changes to the weather forecast this morning
In the 1-10 day range, the only notable warming in the Northeast, however most of the warming was outside of the L48 in Canada (CWG)
The Rockies lost over 10°F over the forecast range, and the Midwest lost 12°F (Criterion)
El Niño conditions are highly likely this summer, but NWS predicts a 37% chance of El Niño becoming very strong, with sea surface temperature anomalies >2°C
Record breaking warm temperatures are possible in the event of a Super El Niño, and history shows it also having a warming effect on the Winter season
Feedgas flows eased over -350 MMcf/d (Criterion)
Golden Pass continues its choppy commissioning progress, with nominations back at 5 MMcf/d this morning
The EIA reported a 95 Bcf injection lifting working gas storage to 2,578 Bcf
The report fell just short of the median estimate of 99 Bcf
The build wasn’t enough to stay above last years record levels, slipping 3 Bcf under last year’s amount
However, stocks are still 138 Bcf above the 5 year average
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