Futures rise as weekend passes without progress on US-Iran talks
The WTI prompt-month contract gained $1.46 to $95.86/bbl on Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Prices moved higher as attempts to restart negotiations over the Iran conflict failed to materialize
While a ceasefire has broadly remained in place since early April, ongoing maritime restrictions from both the US and Iran have reduced vessel traffic through the strait to minimal levels
According to Axios, President Trump is set to meet Monday with senior national security and foreign policy officials to assess the ongoing impasse
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price outlook, citing the sustained closure of Hormuz and the resulting acceleration in inventory draws
WTI is now projected to average $83/bbl in 4Q26, up from a prior estimate of $77/bbl
Analysts estimate that roughly 14.5 MMBbl/d of disrupted Persian Gulf output is pushing global inventories into record draws of 11–12 MMBbl/d in April, a pace viewed as unsustainable, with deeper demand erosion likely if disruptions persist
The bank now expects Gulf export flows to normalize by end-June rather than mid-May, alongside a more gradual recovery in regional production
Natural gas inches up on some added back weather-driven demand
Natural gas is up 7.3c to $2.596/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
L48 cooled 13° over the weekend, adding back some rescom demand to the 2-week forecast range (Criterion)
Most of the added cold was added east of the Rockies, which has been a theme this year
Last week, the EIA reported the L48 inventory surplus expanded again
The Pacific region has 269 Bcf of natural gas stored, compared to a 186.8 five-year average
The Rockies region has 202 Bcf of natural gas stored, compared to 128.6 five-year average
The rest of the L48 is at or below the 5-year average, signaling slight bullish edge for gas east of the Rockies
Production eased slightly to 108.9 Bcf/d, but is expected to rise as the week goes on
Golden Pass sent its first cargo last week
CCL Stage 3 Train 6 remains on track for early-May gas flows (Criterion)
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