Crude eases as market evaluates upcoming ceasefire deadline
The WTI prompt-month contract declined $0.81 to $88.80/bbl on Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
President Trump indicated Vice President Vance may travel to Pakistan for talks, while warning military action could resume if Iran fails to reach an agreement
The move lower partially unwinds Monday’s rally, which was driven by Iran’s decision to shut the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend
Focus has shifted to whether the current ceasefire framework will be extended or transition into a broader agreement between the US and Iran
Amid ongoing uncertainty, leading traders warn that renewed escalation could begin to weigh more heavily on demand
Gunvor Group noted that demand losses could double to roughly 5 MMBbl/d next month
Vitol Group’s CEO estimated the conflict has already removed around 4 MMBbl/d of demand, reinforcing concerns of recessionary pressure if disruptions persist
Natural gas slips as short-lived rescom demand begins to leave
Natural gas is down -1.2c to $2.677/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
Rescom slipped around 3.5 Bcf/d this morning, as temperatures warmed
L48 dry gas production continues to slip to new lows this month, today slipping 1.8 Bcf/d to 107.8 Bcf/d (Criterion)
Production losses were centered in the Northeast and Rockies regions
Rockies natural gas production fell nearly 200 MMcf/d to 4.53 Bcf/d (Bloomberg)
L48 average temperatures are expected to be roughly 60 degrees for the next 3 storage weeks, including this week (Criterion)
PJM kicks off power reliability initiatives with bilateral contracting (S&P)
To address the situation of capacity shortfall of 200 MMcf that could emerge over the next decade, PJM will allow for bilateral contracting directly with supply and load
In letting private deals drive new generation, this can support gas prices in the region
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