The WTI prompt-month contract climbed $7.63 to $104.20/Bbl Monday morning (7:32 AM CT)
Futures pushed back above $100/Bbl after the US signaled plans to block vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz if they had called at or loaded from Iranian ports
The policy is set to take effect Monday morning, though implementation details remain limited and unclear
The announcement follows a breakdown in negotiations over the weekend, where hours of high-level talks in Islamabad failed to produce a path forward or a second round of discussions
Analysts at UBS Group estimate Iran has maintained exports near 2 MMbbl/d during the conflict, suggesting a successful blockade would materially tighten global crude balances
OPEC output posts historic decline (OPEC)
OPEC crude production recorded a sharp drop last month as the conflict disrupted exports across several core producers
Total output fell by 7.88 MMbbl/d to 20.79 MMbbl/d in March
Iraq saw the largest decline, with production down 2.56 MMbbl/d
Saudi Arabia output dropped 2.31 MMbbl/d, while Kuwait and the UAE each recorded losses exceeding 1 MMbbl/d
Gas moves upward as power-burn hits two week high
Natural gas is up 6.4c to $2.712/MMBtu (As of 07:32 AM CT)
The net change of weather-driven demand from last week was bearish, as rescom demand sank nearly 6.0 Bcf/d to just 12 Bcf/d, more than offsetting the nearly 4.0 Bcf/d increase in power demand to 33.4 Bcf/d (Criterion)
Rescom demand is expected to come back on next week
Weekly average temperatures are expected to decline 4°F next week to 60.4°F
LNG feedgas demand slipped -112 MMcf/d to 20.3 Bcf/d
Cameron LNG has a scheduled ESD test on May 2 that will drop feedgas demand by -530 MMcf/d
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